was covid no more deadly then the flu? or while how much more deadly it was is debated, covid was at least more dangerous then the flu, though how much more dangerous is unclear?

The short version: COVID-19 was clearly more deadly than seasonal flu, but the size of the difference depends heavily on age, and the gap has narrowed over time.

The evidence from the first two years of the pandemic shows a large gap. A multi-country study using seroprevalence data estimated the infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19 at about 0.4% for people in their 50s, 1.5% for those in their 60s, and 5.5% for those in their 70s [4]. For seasonal flu, a meta-analysis of Chinese data estimated an all-cause mortality rate of about 14 per 100,000 people across all ages, but a much higher rate of about 123 per 100,000 for those 65 and older [30]. Another study on flu in Turkey found that being over 65 made you 3.4 times more likely to die [13].

The comparison is not a single number. For a healthy child, the risk of death from either infection is near zero. For an elderly person, COVID-19 was a much bigger threat. A study from Qatar showed that for people over 80, the fatality rate was about 1.76% of infections, while for those under 50 it was well below 0.01% [2]. A Nature study from 2020 found the IFR for people over 80 was over 8%, while for children aged 5-9 it was 0.001% [5]. The flu's IFR for the elderly is also high, but generally estimated to be lower, often cited in the range of 0.1-0.5% for those over 65.

The gap has also narrowed. The early estimates of COVID-19's IFR, like the 0.55% to 2.2% range from a hard-hit area in Italy [1], reflected a virus spreading in a completely naive population. As immunity from prior infection and vaccination built up, the virus evolved to be less virulent, and treatments improved, the death rate from COVID-19 fell substantially. The question of how much more dangerous it was is therefore time-dependent. In 2020, it was many times more deadly than flu. By 2023, for a vaccinated or previously infected person, the difference was much smaller, though still present for the elderly and immunocompromised.

My call: COVID-19 was clearly more dangerous than the flu, especially for older adults and during the early pandemic, but the gap has narrowed significantly. Confidence: high.