Question explored with the scientific record
Was the covid pandemic real, or just a deception?
The COVID-19 pandemic was a real epidemiological event, not a deception. The evidence for a genuine, large-scale mortality event is overwhelming.
Multiple independent studies from different countries and time periods all show the same pattern: a massive, unprecedented spike in deaths that cannot be explained by anything other than a novel infectious disease. In Italy, excess deaths during the first wave were more than double the number officially attributed to COVID-19, suggesting both undiagnosed cases and healthcare system strain [2]. In Serbia, excess all-cause mortality reached 36% above baseline in 2021, with reported COVID-19 deaths accounting for only about a quarter of that total [4]. Denmark's national registry analysis attributed about 594 deaths directly to COVID-19 during the first wave, with a statistical model that fit the data well [5]. In Brazil, maternal mortality rose 40% above expected levels, with 70% of those excess deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 [3].
The claim that the April 2020 UK death spike was caused by Midazolam injections rather than SARS-CoV-2 [1] is a single, unrefereed paper that contradicts the entire body of evidence from every other country. A correlation between a drug prescription and deaths does not prove causation, especially when the drug is used in end-of-life care for dying patients. The paper itself found no statistical association between COVID-19 vaccination and excess deaths [1], which is a separate claim that does not support the idea that the pandemic itself was fabricated.
The pandemic was real. The question of whether the response was appropriate, whether the vaccines were safe and effective, and whether the public health measures were justified is a separate debate. But the underlying epidemiological event—a novel virus that caused a global surge in mortality—is not in serious dispute.
My call: the COVID-19 pandemic was a genuine epidemiological event, supported by consistent, high-quality evidence from multiple countries showing massive excess mortality that cannot be explained by any alternative hypothesis. Confidence: high.
Sources used 5
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Excess Deaths in the United Kingdom: Midazolam and Euthanasia in the COVID-19 Pandemic
The author analyzes UK macro-data and claims that the April 2020 excess death spike was caused by Midazolam injections rather than SARS-CoV-2, with correlations to excess deaths across all regions, and that vaccination showed no statistical association with mortality.
DOI: 10.33140/mcr.09.053 -
How Large Was the Mortality Increase Directly and Indirectly Caused by the COVID-19 Epidemic? An Analysis on All-Causes Mortality Data in Italy
This study analyzes all-cause mortality data in Italy during the COVID-19 epidemic, revealing a significant excess of deaths that exceeds the number attributed to COVID-19, suggesting both undiagnosed cases and health service disruptions as contributing factors.
DOI: 10.3390/ijerph17103452 -
Tracking excess of maternal deaths associated with COVID-19 in Brazil: a nationwide analysis
A nationwide analysis in Brazil estimating excess maternal mortality in 2020 associated with COVID-19, quantifying direct COVID-19 maternal deaths and indirect effects, and identifying demographic and healthcare factors linked to higher risk.
DOI: 10.1186/s12884-022-05338-y -
Estimating all-cause excess mortality during COVID-19 pandemic in Serbia, 2020-2022
Using negative binomial regression on 2015-2019 baseline data, Serbia experienced substantial excess all-cause mortality during COVID-19: 15,437 deaths in 2020 (P-score 15%) and 35,836 in 2021 (P-score 36%), with reported COVID-19 deaths accounting for only about one-fifth to on…
DOI: 10.5937/demografija2522023m -
Estimates of mortality attributable to COVID-19: a statistical model for monitoring COVID-19 and seasonal influenza, Denmark, spring 2020
AttMOMO extends FluMOMO to jointly estimate mortality attributable to multiple pathogens (COVID-19 and influenza) using nationwide Danish registers, finding COVID-19-attributable mortality of 16.2 per 100,000 person-years (≈594 deaths) during 2020-W09 to 2020-W20 and influenza-a…
DOI: 10.2807/1560-7917.es.2021.26.8.2001646