Question explored with the scientific record
Conversation so far
- 1 Is MS caused by vaccines?
- 2 What evidence exists for COVID or HPV vaccines causing MS, if any?
Answered on this page ↓
What evidence exists for COVID or HPV vaccines causing MS, if any?
The short version: the HPV vaccine evidence is clean, the COVID vaccine evidence is too thin to judge, and the hepatitis B signal from the previous answer still stands.
The 2026 systematic review of 29 studies on HPV vaccination found no consistent association with MS or other CNS demyelinating disorders [2]. The largest study, covering nearly 4 million women in Denmark and Sweden, reported an adjusted relative risk of 0.90 for MS, meaning vaccinated women had slightly lower risk than unvaccinated [2]. That is the strongest evidence on any vaccine-MS question. The 2009 case series of five young women with demyelinating syndromes within 21 days of Gardasil is a temporal signal, but case series cannot prove causation [3]. The systematic review, which includes population-based cohorts, outweighs it.
The COVID vaccine evidence is much weaker. A 2024 study of 266 MS patients found 14 new cases after COVID vaccination, but none of those patients carried the HLA-DRB1*15 haplotype, the strongest genetic risk factor for MS [1]. That is an interesting observation, not a safety study. No large vaccinated-versus-unvaccinated cohort on COVID vaccines and MS exists in the evidence here. The rest of the COVID records are about other autoimmune conditions: Guillain-Barré, Graves' disease, autoimmune hepatitis, bullous pemphigoid [4-16]. They show that COVID vaccines can trigger autoimmune responses in some people, but none of them test MS specifically.
The hepatitis B signal from the previous answer remains the strongest unresolved question. The 2004 case-control study that found a threefold increase in MS risk compared vaccinated to unvaccinated people, which is the design most likely to catch a real effect. That study has never been definitively refuted with a similarly powered design.
My call: HPV vaccine does not show an MS signal in the best available evidence. COVID vaccine evidence on MS is too thin to judge. The hepatitis B question remains unsettled. Confidence: moderate for HPV, low for COVID.
Sources used 16
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Multiple Sclerosis Onset before and after COVID-19 Vaccination: Can HLA Haplotype Be Determinant?
This study investigates the incidence of newly diagnosed relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) cases before and after the COVID-19 pandemic, exploring potential associations with COVID-19 vaccination and genetic factors, particularly focusing on HLA-DRB1 haplotypes.
DOI: 10.3390/ijms25084556 -
Assessing the Risk of Autoimmune Diseases Following Human Papillomavirus Vaccination: A Systematic Review
This systematic review of 29 studies found no consistent association between HPV vaccination and new-onset autoimmune diseases across a broad spectrum of outcomes.
DOI: 10.69980/aj -
CNS demyelination and quadrivalent HPV vaccination
This case series describes five young women who developed multifocal or atypical CNS demyelinating syndromes within 21 days of quadrivalent HPV (Gardasil) vaccination, with complete or near-complete recovery, though the authors note no definitive conclusions can be drawn about c…
DOI: 10.1177/1352458508096868 -
A case of polyneuropathy after COVID-19 vaccine
This study reports a case of acute sensory and motor impairment following COVID-19 vaccination, highlighting the potential for vaccine-related autoimmune responses such as Guillain-Barré syndrome.
DOI: 10.5692/clinicalneurol.cn-001750 -
Vaccines and Autoimmunity—From Side Effects to ASIA Syndrome
This study explores the relationship between vaccines and autoimmune disorders, particularly focusing on the autoimmune/inflammatory syndrome induced by adjuvants (ASIA), and discusses the mechanisms and implications of vaccine-related autoimmune side effects, including those ob…
DOI: 10.3390/medicina59020364 -
Inflammatory myopathy occurring shortly after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 vaccination: two case reports
This study presents two case reports of patients who developed inflammatory myopathy shortly after receiving the Pfizer BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccine, highlighting potential vaccine-related autoimmune responses.
DOI: 10.1186/s13256-022-03266-1 -
Occurrence and response to treatment of Graves’ disease after COVID vaccination in two male patients
This study reports the occurrence and treatment response of Graves' disease in two male patients following COVID-19 vaccination with Vaxzevria, highlighting potential vaccine-related autoimmune responses.
DOI: 10.1007/s12020-021-02919-3 -
Henoch-Schönlein purpura following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination: a case report
This case report discusses a 22-year-old man who developed Henoch-Schönlein purpura, an immune-mediated vasculitis, following the administration of the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine, highlighting the need for further research on vaccine-related autoimmune conditions.
DOI: 10.7774/cevr.2024.13.2.166 -
New-onset bullous pemphigoid following the fifth dose of the COVID-19 vaccine Pfizer-BioNTech: A case report
This case report documents new-onset bullous pemphigoid in a 54-year-old man occurring four weeks after his fifth Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine booster, detailing clinical progression, diagnostic findings, treatment, and implications for vaccine-related autoimmunity as a rare…
DOI: 10.1177/2050313x251357053 -
Antineutrophil Cytoplasmic Antibody (ANCA)-Associated Glomerulonephritis in a 15-Year-Old Patient After Receiving the Second Dose of the BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm) COVID-19 Vaccine: A Case Report
A 15-year-old boy develops ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis one month after the second BBIBP-CorV (Sinopharm) COVID-19 vaccine, with biopsy-confirmed pauci-immune crescentic GN that improved on steroids and mycophenolate, suggesting a possible vaccine-related autoimmune advers…
DOI: 10.5812/numonthly-127124 -
Autoimmune bullous disorder flares following severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 vaccination: a case series
This case series presents three patients who experienced mild flares of preexisting autoimmune bullous disorders following COVID-19 vaccination, highlighting the need for awareness among dermatologists regarding potential vaccine-related exacerbations.
DOI: 10.1186/s13256-023-04146-y -
Vaccine-Related Autoimmune Hepatitis: Emerging Association with SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination or Coincidence?
This study reviews the emerging association between SARS-CoV-2 vaccination and autoimmune hepatitis (AIH), analyzing 51 reported cases and evaluating their diagnostic criteria and causality.
DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10122073 -
Acute Liver Injury and IgG4-related Autoimmune Pancreatitis following mRNA based COVID-19 vaccination
This study presents the first reported case of IgG4-related disease and autoimmune pancreatitis type 1 associated with mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in a 63-year-old male, highlighting potential autoimmune phenomena following vaccination.
DOI: 10.14744/hf.2022.2022.0019 -
HPV vaccine-related thyroid adverse events: temporal patterns and reporting trends
Analysis of VAERS reports through December 2024 identified disproportionality signals suggesting a potential association between HPV vaccination and thyroid-related adverse events, particularly autoimmune thyroiditis and hypothyroidism, mostly in females under 65 years and withi…
DOI: 10.3389/fphar.2025.1664697 -
IgG4-related Disease Emerging after COVID-19 mRNA Vaccination
This case report describes a 78-year-old Japanese woman who developed IgG4-related disease following COVID-19 mRNA vaccination, highlighting the potential association between vaccination and autoimmune conditions.
DOI: 10.2169/internalmedicine.1125-22 -
A Case of Sequential Development of Polymyalgia Rheumatica and Guillain-Barré Syndrome Following Administration of the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine
This case report describes a 67-year-old man who developed polymyalgia rheumatica and subsequently Guillain-Barré syndrome following his COVID-19 mRNA vaccination, highlighting the potential for multiple autoimmune-related diseases to occur post-vaccination.
DOI: 10.2169/internalmedicine.0319-22