Question explored with the scientific record
Has the COVID vaccine caused many deaths
The short version: the evidence is contradictory and deeply conflicted. No single study settles whether the COVID vaccines caused many deaths, because the most informative comparison—vaccinated versus unvaccinated over time—was rarely run cleanly, and when it was, the results point in opposite directions.
The strongest study that claims benefit is the Norwegian cohort of 4.6 million adults, which found that people with three or more mRNA doses had about 58% lower all-cause mortality than the unvaccinated [6]. But the authors admit this could reflect healthy-vaccinee bias: healthier people got more doses, and the unvaccinated group included the frailest. The Hungarian study tried to correct for that bias and still found a 49% to 75% reduction in all-cause death across six vaccines [7]. These are large effects, and they are hard to explain away entirely.
But several other population-level studies found the opposite pattern. A US county-level study of over 3,000 counties found that higher vaccine uptake was associated with more excess mortality in 2022 and 2023, not less [3]. An analysis of UK ONS data from 2021 to 2023 showed that vaccinated individuals' mortality risk started lower than the unvaccinated but crossed over and became higher over time, with the crossing point predicted between September 2022 and January 2025 depending on age group [5]. A European ecological study of 31 countries found that higher 2021 vaccination uptake tracked with larger monthly increases in excess mortality in 2022 [8]. And a critique of the Australian study claiming 51% protection against all-cause death showed that the numbers imply a 121% excess death rate in the unvaccinated—a figure that has never been observed in any OECD country, including during the worst of the pandemic [1].
The chart below shows the range of findings across the largest studies, using the numbers each reported. The picture is not one of uniform safety.
The studies that show benefit are large and well-adjusted, but they compare groups that differ in health status from the start. The studies that show harm are ecological or observational, and they cannot prove causation either. What is missing is a single randomized trial of vaccination versus true placebo with all-cause mortality as the endpoint. That trial was never done. The evidence we have is a patchwork of conflicting signals, each with its own bias.
My call: the evidence does not prove that COVID vaccines caused many deaths, but it also does not prove they did not. The signal of possible harm in several large population studies is too consistent to dismiss. Confidence: low. The question remains open because the most informative study design was never run.
Sources examined 32
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The Claim That COVID-19 Vaccination Protected Australians from All-Cause Mortality Is Not Plausible
Liu et al.'s finding that COVID-19 vaccination substantially reduced all-cause mortality in older Australians in 2022 is implausible because it implies a 121% excess mortality rate in the unvaccinated, contradicting OECD and Australian historical data.
DOI: 10.71189/jim/2026/v02n03a11 -
Impact of influenza vaccination on GP-diagnosed COVID-19 and all-cause mortality: a Dutch cohort study
In a Dutch primary-care cohort of 223,580 adults, influenza vaccination in 2019 was associated with slightly higher GP-diagnosed COVID-19 rates (HR 1.15; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.22) but slightly lower all-cause mortality (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.97).
DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-061727 -
Why COVID-19 vaccination cannot be ruled out as an explanation for all-cause excess mortality in the pandemic’s aftermath: A population-level study of over 3,000 US counties with over 320 million people
A US county-level study found positive associations between per-capita COVID-19 vaccine uptake and all-cause excess mortality in 2022 and 2023, even when adjusting for lagged mortality, but the design cannot establish causation.
DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.177279.1 -
Association between influenza vaccination and hospitalisation or all-cause mortality in people with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study
In a retrospective cohort of 6921 people with COVID-19, prior influenza vaccination was associated with 15% lower odds of hospitalisation or all-cause mortality (aOR 0.85) and 24% lower odds of all-cause mortality (aOR 0.76).
DOI: 10.1136/bmjresp-2020-000857 -
All-cause mortality according to COVID-19 vaccination status: An analysis of the UK office for National statistics public data
The analysis of UK ONS data from April 2021 to May 2023 found that all-cause and non-COVID-19 mortality SMRs increased over time for vaccinated individuals relative to unvaccinated individuals across all age groups, with predicted crossing points from September 2022 to January 2…
DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.154058.2 -
COVID-19 mRNA vaccination and all-cause mortality in the adult population in Norway during 2021–2023: a population-based cohort study
In a Norwegian population-based cohort of 4,645,910 adults followed from January 2021 to December 2023, individuals who received three or more mRNA vaccine doses had a substantially lower adjusted all-cause mortality rate than unvaccinated individuals, with fully vaccinated adul…
DOI: 10.1136/bmjph-2024-001859 -
Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination in Preventing All-Cause Mortality among Adults during the Third Wave of the Epidemic in Hungary: Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study
In a nationwide retrospective cohort of 6.4 million Hungarian adults, all six COVID-19 vaccines were associated with reduced all-cause mortality after adjusting for healthy vaccinee effects, with HVE-corrected vaccine effectiveness ranging from 48.7% for Pfizer-BioNTech to 75.4%…
DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10071009 -
Is There a Link between the 2021 COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake in Europe and 2022 Excess All-Cause Mortality?
Analyses of 31 European countries found that higher 2021 COVID-19 vaccination uptake was associated with greater increases in monthly all-cause excess mortality during the first nine months of 2022, although the authors caution against causal interpretation and ecological fallac…
DOI: 10.21276/apjhs.2023.10.1.6 -
COVID-19 clinical phenotypes in vaccinated and nonvaccinated solid organ transplant recipients: a multicenter validation study
This multicenter validation study investigates the clinical phenotypes of COVID-19 in solid organ transplant recipients, revealing that vaccination significantly reduces all-cause mortality compared to nonvaccinated individuals.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-81099-2 -
Temporal patterns of all-cause mortality among U.S. nursing home residents across COVID-19 vaccination strata, May 2022-June 2023
This longitudinal study of 15,022 US nursing homes found that all-cause mortality rose with COVID-19 positive case counts, with elevated mortality persisting longer among partially vaccinated (3 weeks) and fully vaccinated (5 weeks) residents compared to unvaccinated residents (…
DOI: 10.18103/mra.v14i3.7380 -
Classification bias and impact of COVID-19 vaccination on all-cause mortality: the case of the Italian region Emilia-Romagna
A population-based analysis of Emilia-Romagna data demonstrates a case counting window bias in COVID-19 vaccination status that misclassifies early post-vaccination deaths as unvaccinated, inflating unvaccinated mortality relative to vaccinated mortality and potentially biasing …
DOI: 10.1080/08916934.2025.2562972 -
BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 (Comirnaty) Vaccine Effectiveness in Elderly Patients Who Live in Long-Term Care Facilities: A Nationwide Cohort
A nationwide Israeli cohort study of long-term care facility residents shows that the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine substantially reduces SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19–related death, and all-cause mortality within 28 days of vaccination, with waning effectiveness with increasi…
DOI: 10.1159/000521899 -
Risk of worsening heart failure and all-cause mortality following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in patients with heart failure: a Danish nationwide real-world safety study
In a nationwide Danish cohort of 101,786 patients with heart failure, SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination was associated with a lower 90-day all-cause mortality risk compared with a matched 2019 unvaccinated cohort and with no difference in worsening heart failure, myocarditis, or venou…
DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehac544.881 -
All Cause Mortality and COVID-19 Injections: Evidence from 28 Weeks of Public Health England “COVID-19 Vaccine Surveillance Reports”
UK vaccine-surveillance data from Public Health England over 28 weeks show an almost perfect correlation between all-cause deaths within 60 days of a positive COVID-19 test and deaths after 1–3 COVID-19 vaccine doses.
DOI: 10.56098/ijvtpr.v2i2.42 -
Dynamic effects of COVID-19 vaccination on major acute cardiovascular events and mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection in a target trial emulation study
In a population-based Estonian cohort, this target-trial emulation study shows that pre-infection COVID-19 vaccination modestly reduces the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality within the year after SARS-CoV-2 infection, with the protective …
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-13043-x -
MO820: Comparison of All-Cause-Mortality Before and After COVID-19 Vaccination in a Hemodialysis Center
In a prospective before-after study of 165 hemodialysis patients in Uzbekistan, one-year survival improved from 79.6% during multiple dialyzer reuse to 89.4% after switching to single-use disposable dialyzers, a 12.3% increase.
DOI: 10.1093/ndt/gfac083.002 -
Safety of mRNA Vaccines Administered During the First Twenty-Four Months of the International COVID-19 Vaccination Program
An observational analysis of multiple regulatory surveillance datasets (VAERS, DMED, V-Safe, EudraVigilance, UK ONS, Eurostat, and Our World in Data) suggesting signals of increased adverse events—particularly menstrual abnormalities, myocarditis, and cerebrovascular events—and …
DOI: 10.56098/ijvtpr.v3i1.70 -
Early Indication of Long-Term Impact of COVID Injections
Analysis of Australian mortality data through June 2023 suggests COVID injections caused successive waves of excess deaths at a 21-week lag, with a fulfilled prediction and progressively larger dose-response, indicating possible long-term harm.
DOI: 10.33140/mcr.07.048 -
Pandemic Crisis, its Health and Economic Determinants and Dampening Effects of Government Policies in EU Countries
EU-wide panel analysis shows that higher COVID-19 infections reduced life expectancy and productivity, while capital spending, vaccination and digital readiness cushioned the shock and supported macro stability.
DOI: 10.15388/ekon.2025.104.4.6 -
Excess Cardiopulmonary Arrest and Mortality after COVID-19 Vaccination in King County, Washington
An ecological study of King County, WA, found that excess cardiopulmonary arrest deaths rose sharply from 2020 to 2023 (from 11 to 147) and were quadratically associated with rising COVID-19 vaccination rates, yielding an estimated 49,240 excess fatal cardiopulmonary arrests for…
DOI: 10.33140/jemoa.02.01.12 -
The correlation between Australian Excess Deaths by State and Booster Vaccinations
This study investigates the correlation between excess deaths and COVID-19 booster vaccinations across Australian states, revealing a strong relationship supported by regression analysis and cross-validation tests.
DOI: 10.18103/mra.v12i7.5485 -
Response to Elizabeth M. Bik, MSc, PhD, Regarding Our Study of Abnormal Clots and Medicare Deaths Linked to the COVID-19 Injections that Were Supposed to Prevent SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Deaths
A defense and elaboration of prior analyses claiming a dose-dependent association between COVID-19 injections and excess mortality and abnormal clotting in Medicare and UK data, arguing aging cannot explain the observed variance and calling for independent replication.
DOI: 10.56098/s8xk7z58 -
Pfizer COVID19 vaccine is not associated with acute cardiovascular events excluding myocarditis– a national self-controlled case series study
A national self-controlled case-series analysis finds no evidence that the second dose of Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine increases short-term risk of acute cardiovascular events excluding myocarditis or all-cause mortality in Israel, though mortality findings may be biased by …
DOI: 10.1186/s13584-024-00609-9 -
Excess Deaths in the United Kingdom: Midazolam and Euthanasia in the COVID-19 Pandemic
The author analyzes UK macro-data and claims that the April 2020 excess death spike was caused by Midazolam injections rather than SARS-CoV-2, with correlations to excess deaths across all regions, and that vaccination showed no statistical association with mortality.
DOI: 10.33140/mcr.09.053 -
First Identified Case of Fatal Fulminant Necrotizing Eosinophilic Myocarditis Following the Initial Dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA COVID-19 Vaccine (BNT162b2, Comirnaty): an Extremely Rare Idiosyncratic Hypersensitivity Reaction
This study presents the first identified case of fatal fulminant necrotizing eosinophilic myocarditis following the initial dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech mRNA COVID-19 vaccine, highlighting the rarity and severity of this idiosyncratic hypersensitivity reaction.
DOI: 10.1007/s10875-021-01187-0 -
Fatal Myocarditis following COVID-19 mRNA Immunization: A Case Report and Differential Diagnosis Review
This case report details the fatal myocarditis in a 7-year-old male following COVID-19 mRNA vaccination, highlighting the diagnostic challenges and potential links to rheumatic fever and vaccine-related myocarditis.
DOI: 10.3390/vaccines12020194 -
Postmortem investigation of fatalities following vaccination with COVID-19 vaccines
This study investigates the postmortem findings of 18 fatalities following COVID-19 vaccination, revealing that most deaths were attributed to preexisting conditions, with only one case of myocarditis linked to vaccination.
DOI: 10.1007/s00414-021-02706-9 -
A Systematic Review of Myocarditis Associated with Covid-19 Mrna Vaccination among Adolescents
This systematic review investigates the clinical features, diagnostic findings, management, and outcomes of myocarditis associated with mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in adolescents, highlighting a total of 107 cases with significant symptoms and elevated cardiac biomarkers but no re…
DOI: 10.47191/ijmscrs/v2-i2-13 -
Case of Myocarditis, Pericarditis, and Fatal Aortic Dissection Following COVID-19 mRNA Vaccination
A 34-year-old previously healthy male developed myocarditis, pericarditis, and a fatal thoracic aortic dissection 16 days after his first COVID-19 mRNA vaccine dose, with autopsy showing vaccine-derived spike protein and eosinophilic/lymphocytic infiltrates.
DOI: 10.33140/bscr.03.03.03 -
Lessons Learnt from Case Series of Out-of-hospital Cardiac Arrest and Unexpected Death after COVID-19 Vaccination
This study reviews cases of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and unexpected deaths following COVID-19 vaccination, highlighting the potential link between myocarditis, prominent J waves on ECG, and fatal arrhythmias, particularly in young men.
DOI: 10.2169/internalmedicine.2298-23 -
A Case of Heart Transplantation for Fulminant Myocarditis After ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 Vaccination
This study presents a case of a 63-year-old woman who developed fulminant myocarditis following the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccination, ultimately requiring heart transplantation, highlighting the potential severe adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccines.
DOI: 10.3346/jkms.2022.37.e104 -
Myocarditis after COVID-19: Comparing risks from vaccination and infection
A meta-analysis and FDA reports show COVID-19 infection carries a higher risk of myocarditis and more severe outcomes than mRNA vaccination, so vaccine benefits outweigh risks.
DOI: 10.47391/jpma.32162