Question explored with the scientific record
Conversation so far
- 1 Do vaccines save lives?
- 2 Does covid vaccine cause excess deaths?
- 3 how high is risk of death of ventilator?
Answered on this page ↓
how high is risk of death of ventilator?
The short version: among COVID-19 patients who need a ventilator, roughly 4 to 7 in 10 die, and the number swings wildly by hospital and era.
The best single number here is a 2025 population study: 49.1% of ventilated COVID-19 patients died, versus 20.7% of ventilated influenza patients [1]. That is a real, large gap. But look at the range across the other records, because it tells you the number is not a fixed property of the machine.
| Setting | Deaths among ventilated | Source |
|---|---|---|
| COVID-19, population cohort | 49.1% | [1] |
| COVID-19, Denver hospitals | 41.5% | [3] |
| COVID-19, Madrid ICU | 38.7% | [4] |
| COVID-19, Norway ICU | 13% (hospital) | [5] |
| COVID-19, Nepal ICU | 74.7% | [6] |
The spread is the story. Norway's 13% [5] and Nepal's 74.7% [6] are both "ventilated COVID patients," and they differ by a factor of five. That gap is not the ventilator. It is who got intubated, when, and how sick they already were. The Nepal study found noninvasive support first had far lower mortality than intubation first [6], which is a warning about timing, not proof the tube kills.
On your vaccine question: the records do not give a clean answer on whether vaccination changes the death rate once someone is ventilated. One study found vaccinated patients needed ventilation less often (13.8% vs 26.4%) [2], and another found full vaccination tied to lower ICU mortality [7]. But these compare vaccinated to unvaccinated patients, not ventilated to ventilated. The specific comparison you are asking about is not in front of me.
My call: the honest figure is roughly 40 to 50 in 100 for ventilated COVID-19 patients, with a range from about 13 to 75 depending on setting, and the vaccine's effect on that specific number is not established here. Confidence: moderate on the range, low on the vaccine link.
Sources used 7
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Comparative Evaluation of Risk of Death in Mechanically Ventilated Patients With COVID-19 and Influenza: A Population-Based Cohort Study
This population-based cohort study evaluates the short-term mortality risk among mechanically ventilated patients with COVID-19 compared to those with influenza during the latter years of the pandemic, finding that COVID-19 patients have a significantly higher mortality rate.
DOI: 10.14740/jocmr6189 -
Clinical Outcomes in Hospitalized Vaccine-Breakthrough Coronavirus Disease 2019 Cases Compared With Contemporary Unvaccinated Hospitalized Adults
Full vaccination, predominantly with CoronaVac, was associated with lower critical care use, mechanical ventilation, and age-stratified mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 adults, despite vaccinated patients being older.
DOI: 10.1093/ofid/ofac122 -
How Do COVID-19 Inpatients in the Denver Metropolitan Area Measure Up?
A retrospective multicenter study of 681 discharged COVID-19 inpatients across six Denver-area hospitals (Feb 18–Apr 30, 2020) detailing mortality, ICU utilization, length of stay, and mechanical ventilation, with comparisons to other regions that suggest lower mortality and sho…
DOI: 10.1155/2020/8579738 -
Open Tracheostomy for Critically Ill Patients with COVID-19
A prospective single-center cohort study of ICU COVID-19 patients requiring invasive mechanical ventilation, analyzing open tracheostomy timing and outcomes, showing tracheostomy aids weaning but increases ICU stay with no staff infections when proper PPE is used.
DOI: 10.1155/2020/8861013 -
A single‐centre, prospective cohort study of COVID‐19 patients admitted to ICU for mechanical ventilatory support
Prospective, single-centre cohort of 36 ICU COVID-19 patients requiring mechanical ventilation in Norway shows relatively low mortality (13% hospital, with 30-day mortality also low) and strong adherence to ARDS protocols plus intensified anticoagulation.
DOI: 10.1111/aas.13726 -
Outcome of Non-Invasive vs. Invasive Ventilation in Critically Ill COVID-19 Patients at a Tertiary Care Center
Initiating noninvasive ventilation as the first-line ventilatory support for critically ill COVID-19 patients in a single-center ICU was associated with substantially lower mortality than immediate invasive ventilation, while NIV after a trial did not significantly reduce mortal…
DOI: 10.37080/nmj.224 -
Comparison of fully-vaccinated and non/partially-vaccinated critically-ill COVID-19 patients in terms of disease severity: a retrospective observational study
In two French ICUs, a near real-time registry of 805 critically ill COVID-19 patients shows that full vaccination is associated with reduced progression to severe disease and lower ICU mortality compared with non- or partially vaccinated patients, with variants of concern not in…
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-025-11904-4