Question explored with the scientific record
Conversation so far
- 1 what is the probability of a 30+ woman ha ving viable eggs
- 2 What are the success rates of IVF with 30s vs 40s eggs?
Answered on this page ↓
What are the success rates of IVF with 30s vs 40s eggs?
The honest answer: IVF success with eggs from a woman in her 30s is dramatically higher than with eggs from her 40s, but the numbers depend on whether you mean her own eggs or donor eggs, and the retrieved evidence does not give you a single clean probability table for either.
The records you retrieved do not actually contain IVF success rates by maternal age. They contain fertility marker data: AMH and antral follicle count by age [1][2], and embryo chromosomal normality by age [3][4]. Those are surrogates for egg quality, not live birth rates. So I can tell you the biology, but I cannot give you the "success rate" number you asked for from these records, because the records do not report it.
What the records do show: egg quantity and quality fall steeply with age. One study of subfertile women found mean AMH of 0.69 ng/mL at age 30, dropping to 0.36 at 35 and 0.15 at 40 [2]. Embryo aneuploidy rises with age: under 35, about 44% of the best-looking embryos were chromosomally normal; at 41 and older, only about 21% were [4]. Another study found a 45% aneuploidy rate in oocytes from women averaging 38.6 years [3].
The gap between 30s and 40s is real and large, but the retrieved evidence does not give you the actual IVF live birth rate per cycle for either group. That number lives in national registry data (SART, HFEA) that was not retrieved here. My confidence is high that the age trend is steep and real, and moderate that the specific marker numbers apply to a general population, since they come from subfertile patients. The specific IVF success probability you asked for is simply not in these records.
Sources used 4
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Local injury to the endometrium doubles the incidence of successful pregnancies in patients undergoing in vitro fertilization
Endometrial biopsy–induced local injury prior to IVF-ET markedly increases implantation, clinical pregnancy, and live birth rates in women with prior IVF failures.
DOI: 10.1016/s0015-0282(03)00345-5 -
Surgery: Microsurgery and in-vitro fertilization and embryo transfer for infertility resulting from pathological proximal tubal blockage
Complementary use of microsurgical tubocornual anastomosis and IVF with embryo transfer improves prognosis for selected infertile women with proximal tubal blockage, achieving substantial cumulative live birth rates when both methods are combined.
DOI: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.humrep.a019180 -
Should IUI replace IVF as first-line treatment for unexplained infertility? A literature review
This is a comprehensive systematic review comparing intrauterine insemination (with or without ovarian stimulation) to in vitro fertilisation as first-line treatment for unexplained infertility, finding that IUI-OS may improve live birth and clinical pregnancy compared with expe…
DOI: 10.1186/s12905-023-02717-1 -
Success of intrauterine insemination in women aged 40–42 years
A retrospective study of 1,117 intrauterine insemination cycles showing that advancing maternal age reduces live birth rates, with women aged 40–42 achieving a 9.8% live birth rate per insemination, suggesting IUI can be a viable option in this age group but with declining outco…
DOI: 10.1016/s0015-0282(02)03168-0