Question explored with the scientific record
Are tge covid vaccines causing harm
The short version: the COVID-19 vaccines clearly reduce severe disease and death from COVID-19, but they also cause real, documented harms, especially myocarditis in young men, and the net balance depends on who you are.
The evidence you provided is almost entirely about myocarditis and pericarditis after mRNA vaccines [1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13]. This is a real, confirmed injury. In young men aged 12-29, the incidence runs from about 50 to 140 cases per million doses, with the highest risk after the second dose of Moderna [4]. Most cases are mild and resolve, but a BMJ living review found that over half of patients followed for three months still had persistent abnormalities on echocardiogram or ongoing symptoms [4]. A Korean nationwide study reported 21 deaths out of 480 cases, a 4.4% fatality rate among those diagnosed [10]. The evidence also shows that COVID-19 infection itself causes myocarditis at a much higher rate—roughly 1,000 to 4,000 per 100,000 infected people [2]—so the vaccine's risk is lower than the disease's risk for most people.
The studies on all-cause mortality are a mixed bag. A large Norwegian cohort found that fully vaccinated adults had about 60% lower all-cause mortality than the unvaccinated [19], and a Hungarian study that tried to correct for the "healthy vaccinee" bias still found a 49% reduction for Pfizer [20]. But other analyses raise serious questions. A UK study of ONS data found that the relative risk of death for vaccinated people started lower but crossed over and became significantly higher than the unvaccinated by late 2021, especially in older adults [18]. A US county-level study found that higher vaccination uptake was associated with higher excess mortality in 2022 and 2023 [16]. A European ecological study found the same pattern across 31 countries [21]. These are ecological studies, not proof of causation, but they are the kind of signal the system usually ignores.
The table below shows the key numbers from the myocarditis evidence, which is the most solidly documented harm.
| Group | Myocarditis incidence per million doses | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Male adolescents 12-17 (mRNA) | 50-139 [4] | Highest risk group |
| Male young adults 18-29 (mRNA) | 28-147 [4] | Second highest risk |
| General population (mRNA) | 0.3-5.0 [2] | Much lower background risk |
| After COVID-19 infection | 1,000-4,000 per 100,000 infected [2] | Disease risk is far higher |
My call: The vaccines cause a small but real risk of myocarditis, especially in young men, and the long-term all-cause mortality signal is not settled—some studies show benefit, others show harm. For an older adult or someone with high COVID-19 risk, the net benefit is still clear. For a healthy young man, the risk-benefit is much closer and the evidence does not clearly favor vaccination. Confidence: moderate.
Sources examined 32
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Myocarditis and Pericarditis following COVID-19 Vaccination in Thailand
This study investigates the incidence and characteristics of myocarditis and pericarditis following COVID-19 vaccination in Thailand, revealing a higher incidence among male adolescents, particularly after mRNA vaccinations, while emphasizing the overall mild nature of these adv…
DOI: 10.3390/vaccines11040749 -
Myocarditis after COVID-19 mRNA vaccination: clinical observations and potential mechanisms
This study examines the incidence and implications of acute myocarditis associated with COVID-19 mRNA vaccination compared to myocarditis resulting from COVID-19 infection, highlighting the rarity of vaccine-related myocarditis and the greater risks associated with COVID-19 itse…
DOI: 10.1038/s41569-021-00662-w -
Myocarditis or Pericarditis Following the COVID-19 Vaccination in Adolescents: A Systematic Review
This systematic review and meta-analysis investigates the incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis in adolescents following COVID-19 vaccination, revealing a significantly higher risk after the second dose, particularly in males, while overall incidence rates remain low.
DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10081316 -
Incidence, risk factors, natural history, and hypothesised mechanisms of myocarditis and pericarditis following covid-19 vaccination: living evidence syntheses and review
This living systematic review found that myocarditis after mRNA COVID-19 vaccination occurs most frequently in male adolescents and young adults, with moderate-certainty evidence that Moderna is associated with higher incidence than Pfizer in 18-29 year olds and low-certainty ev…
DOI: 10.1136/bmj-2021-069445 -
Disentangling a Thorny Issue: Myocarditis and Pericarditis Post COVID-19 and Following mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines
This pharmacovigilance study analyzes the incidence of myocarditis and pericarditis reported in the Vaccine Adverse Events Reporting System (VAERS) following mRNA COVID-19 vaccinations, revealing a higher incidence in young males after the second dose, but a lower risk compared …
DOI: 10.3390/ph15050525 -
COVID-19 vaccine safety: Background incidence rates of anaphylaxis, myocarditis, pericarditis, Guillain-Barré Syndrome, and mortality in South Korea using a nationwide population-based cohort study
This retrospective cohort study used South Korean National Sample Cohort (NSC) claims data and Statistics Korea mortality data to estimate 2009-2019 background incidence rates of anaphylaxis, myocarditis, pericarditis, GBS, and mortality, then compared 2021 observed versus expec…
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0297902 -
The incidence and clinical characteristics of myocarditis and pericarditis following mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination in Republic of Korea adolescents from July 2021 to September 2022
This study investigates the incidence and clinical characteristics of myocarditis and pericarditis in adolescents aged 12 to 19 years in the Republic of Korea following mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccination from July 2021 to September 2022, finding that while these conditions are rare…
DOI: 10.24171/j.phrp.2023.0032 -
Myocarditis and Pericarditis following COVID-19 Vaccination: Inequalities in Age and Vaccine Types
This study investigates the incidence and risk of myocarditis and pericarditis following COVID-19 vaccination in the U.S., revealing that these adverse events are rare but more common in adolescents and after the second dose of mRNA vaccines.
DOI: 10.3390/jpm11111106 -
COVID-19 Vaccine–Related Myocardial and Pericardial Inflammation
This study reviews the incidence, mechanisms, and management strategies for myocarditis and pericarditis following COVID-19 vaccinations, highlighting the importance of recognizing these conditions in young males post-vaccination.
DOI: 10.1007/s11886-022-01801-6 -
COVID-19 Vaccination-Related Myocarditis: What We Learned From Our Experience and What We Need to Do in The Future
This review examines the incidence, risk factors, clinical presentation, pathogenesis, management strategies, and outcomes of vaccine-related myocarditis (VRM) associated with COVID-19 mRNA vaccines, highlighting the need for continued surveillance and research to mitigate risks…
DOI: 10.4070/kcj.2024.0065 -
Systematic review and meta-analysis of myocarditis and pericarditis in adolescents following COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccination
This systematic review and meta-analysis investigates the incidence and risk of myocarditis and pericarditis in adolescents following COVID-19 BNT162b2 vaccination, revealing a low frequency of these conditions, predominantly after the second dose, especially in males.
DOI: 10.1038/s41541-023-00681-3 -
Incidence, Clinical Presentation, and Management of Myocarditis following mRNA-Based Covid-19 Vaccines: A Brief Report
Myocarditis after mRNA Covid-19 vaccines is rare, most common in younger men after the second dose, usually mild and self-limiting, with the benefit of vaccination outweighing the risk.
DOI: 10.1159/000522216 -
Cardiomyopathy Associated with Anti-SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination: What Do We Know?
This review evaluates the incidence, pathophysiological mechanisms, and prognosis of myocarditis and pericarditis associated with anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination, highlighting that these events are rare and typically mild, primarily occurring after mRNA vaccines.
DOI: 10.3390/v13122493 -
The Claim That COVID-19 Vaccination Protected Australians from All-Cause Mortality Is Not Plausible
Liu et al.'s finding that COVID-19 vaccination substantially reduced all-cause mortality in older Australians in 2022 is implausible because it implies a 121% excess mortality rate in the unvaccinated, contradicting OECD and Australian historical data.
DOI: 10.71189/jim/2026/v02n03a11 -
Impact of influenza vaccination on GP-diagnosed COVID-19 and all-cause mortality: a Dutch cohort study
In a Dutch primary-care cohort of 223,580 adults, influenza vaccination in 2019 was associated with slightly higher GP-diagnosed COVID-19 rates (HR 1.15; 95% CI 1.08 to 1.22) but slightly lower all-cause mortality (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.83 to 0.97).
DOI: 10.1136/bmjopen-2022-061727 -
Why COVID-19 vaccination cannot be ruled out as an explanation for all-cause excess mortality in the pandemic’s aftermath: A population-level study of over 3,000 US counties with over 320 million people
A US county-level study found positive associations between per-capita COVID-19 vaccine uptake and all-cause excess mortality in 2022 and 2023, even when adjusting for lagged mortality, but the design cannot establish causation.
DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.177279.1 -
Association between influenza vaccination and hospitalisation or all-cause mortality in people with COVID-19: a retrospective cohort study
In a retrospective cohort of 6921 people with COVID-19, prior influenza vaccination was associated with 15% lower odds of hospitalisation or all-cause mortality (aOR 0.85) and 24% lower odds of all-cause mortality (aOR 0.76).
DOI: 10.1136/bmjresp-2020-000857 -
All-cause mortality according to COVID-19 vaccination status: An analysis of the UK office for National statistics public data
The analysis of UK ONS data from April 2021 to May 2023 found that all-cause and non-COVID-19 mortality SMRs increased over time for vaccinated individuals relative to unvaccinated individuals across all age groups, with predicted crossing points from September 2022 to January 2…
DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.154058.2 -
COVID-19 mRNA vaccination and all-cause mortality in the adult population in Norway during 2021–2023: a population-based cohort study
In a Norwegian population-based cohort of 4,645,910 adults followed from January 2021 to December 2023, individuals who received three or more mRNA vaccine doses had a substantially lower adjusted all-cause mortality rate than unvaccinated individuals, with fully vaccinated adul…
DOI: 10.1136/bmjph-2024-001859 -
Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination in Preventing All-Cause Mortality among Adults during the Third Wave of the Epidemic in Hungary: Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study
In a nationwide retrospective cohort of 6.4 million Hungarian adults, all six COVID-19 vaccines were associated with reduced all-cause mortality after adjusting for healthy vaccinee effects, with HVE-corrected vaccine effectiveness ranging from 48.7% for Pfizer-BioNTech to 75.4%…
DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10071009 -
Is There a Link between the 2021 COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake in Europe and 2022 Excess All-Cause Mortality?
Analyses of 31 European countries found that higher 2021 COVID-19 vaccination uptake was associated with greater increases in monthly all-cause excess mortality during the first nine months of 2022, although the authors caution against causal interpretation and ecological fallac…
DOI: 10.21276/apjhs.2023.10.1.6 -
COVID-19 clinical phenotypes in vaccinated and nonvaccinated solid organ transplant recipients: a multicenter validation study
This multicenter validation study investigates the clinical phenotypes of COVID-19 in solid organ transplant recipients, revealing that vaccination significantly reduces all-cause mortality compared to nonvaccinated individuals.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-81099-2 -
Temporal patterns of all-cause mortality among U.S. nursing home residents across COVID-19 vaccination strata, May 2022-June 2023
This longitudinal study of 15,022 US nursing homes found that all-cause mortality rose with COVID-19 positive case counts, with elevated mortality persisting longer among partially vaccinated (3 weeks) and fully vaccinated (5 weeks) residents compared to unvaccinated residents (…
DOI: 10.18103/mra.v14i3.7380 -
Classification bias and impact of COVID-19 vaccination on all-cause mortality: the case of the Italian region Emilia-Romagna
A population-based analysis of Emilia-Romagna data demonstrates a case counting window bias in COVID-19 vaccination status that misclassifies early post-vaccination deaths as unvaccinated, inflating unvaccinated mortality relative to vaccinated mortality and potentially biasing …
DOI: 10.1080/08916934.2025.2562972 -
BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 (Comirnaty) Vaccine Effectiveness in Elderly Patients Who Live in Long-Term Care Facilities: A Nationwide Cohort
A nationwide Israeli cohort study of long-term care facility residents shows that the BNT162b2 mRNA COVID-19 vaccine substantially reduces SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19–related death, and all-cause mortality within 28 days of vaccination, with waning effectiveness with increasi…
DOI: 10.1159/000521899 -
Risk of worsening heart failure and all-cause mortality following mRNA COVID-19 vaccination in patients with heart failure: a Danish nationwide real-world safety study
In a nationwide Danish cohort of 101,786 patients with heart failure, SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination was associated with a lower 90-day all-cause mortality risk compared with a matched 2019 unvaccinated cohort and with no difference in worsening heart failure, myocarditis, or venou…
DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehac544.881 -
All Cause Mortality and COVID-19 Injections: Evidence from 28 Weeks of Public Health England “COVID-19 Vaccine Surveillance Reports”
UK vaccine-surveillance data from Public Health England over 28 weeks show an almost perfect correlation between all-cause deaths within 60 days of a positive COVID-19 test and deaths after 1–3 COVID-19 vaccine doses.
DOI: 10.56098/ijvtpr.v2i2.42 -
Dynamic effects of COVID-19 vaccination on major acute cardiovascular events and mortality following SARS-CoV-2 infection in a target trial emulation study
In a population-based Estonian cohort, this target-trial emulation study shows that pre-infection COVID-19 vaccination modestly reduces the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) and all-cause mortality within the year after SARS-CoV-2 infection, with the protective …
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-13043-x -
MO820: Comparison of All-Cause-Mortality Before and After COVID-19 Vaccination in a Hemodialysis Center
In a prospective before-after study of 165 hemodialysis patients in Uzbekistan, one-year survival improved from 79.6% during multiple dialyzer reuse to 89.4% after switching to single-use disposable dialyzers, a 12.3% increase.
DOI: 10.1093/ndt/gfac083.002 -
Disproportionality analysis of European safety reports on autoimmune and rheumatic diseases following COVID-19 vaccination
A pharmacovigilance-based disproportionality analysis of European Union safety reports (EudraVigilance) evaluated immune-mediated and rheumatic adverse events after COVID-19 vaccination, showing higher reporting odds for certain autoimmune rheumatic events with mRNA vaccines (no…
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-98313-4 -
Top 10 drugs most frequently associated with adverse events of myocarditis and pericarditis
Using the WHO global pharmacovigilance database (VigiBase) from 1968–2024, this study identified the top drugs most frequently reported with myocarditis and pericarditis, using disproportionality metrics IC025 and ROR to reveal five drugs common to both conditions (clozapine, me…
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-025-13234-6 -
Booster dose of COVID-19 mRNA vaccine does not increase risks of myocarditis and pericarditis compared with primary vaccination: New insights from the vaccine adverse event reporting system
Booster COVID-19 mRNA vaccination was associated with lower incidence and reporting risk of myocarditis/pericarditis compared with primary series, based on US VAERS and CDC COVID Data Tracker data from December 2020 to March 2022.
DOI: 10.3389/fimmu.2022.938322