Question explored with the scientific record
There are claims that the pharmaceutical industry has biased the vaccine studies to show that vaccines do not cause autism and other harm. Find me studies not funded by the pharmaceutical industry on this topic. So they cause harm?
The studies you can find that are not funded by industry mostly look at the same question and reach the same conclusion: they do not find a link between vaccines and autism, but the evidence has real limits.
The strongest non-industry evidence comes from a Japanese total-population study [2]. MMR vaccination rates dropped from about 70% to zero across birth cohorts from 1988 to 1996. Yet autism diagnoses at age 7 kept rising, from about 48 to 117 per 10,000 children. If MMR caused autism, removing it should have stopped or slowed the rise. It did not. This is a natural experiment, not a drug-company trial.
A Danish cohort study of over 440,000 children also found no association between MMR and autism [3]. A UK time-trend study found no increase in autism after MMR was introduced in 1988 [5]. A 2015 Japanese case-control study found no link either [1]. These studies were not funded by vaccine manufacturers.
But there is one study that raises a different question. A 2024 ecological analysis found that US states with higher estimated aluminum-adjuvant exposure from vaccines at 6-12 months also had higher rates of autism, allergies, asthma, and ADHD [4]. This is a population-level correlation, not proof of harm. It cannot rule out other factors. But it is a signal that the mechanism of aluminum adjuvants deserves more scrutiny than it gets.
My call: the evidence that MMR or thimerosal cause autism is thin and contradicted by large, well-designed studies. The aluminum-adjuvant question is not settled, but the evidence here is too weak to say it causes harm. Confidence: moderate for the MMR-autism question, low for the aluminum-autism question.
Sources used 5
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The combined measles, mumps, and rubella vaccines and the total number of vaccines are not associated with development of autism spectrum disorder: The first case–control study in Asia
This study investigates the relationship between autism spectrum disorder (ASD) and vaccinations, particularly the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, in a genetically homogeneous Japanese population, finding no significant association between vaccination and the development of…
DOI: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2012.01.093 -
No effect of MMR withdrawal on the incidence of autism: a total population study
In a Japanese total population cohort, MMR vaccination rates dropped from 69.8% to 0% across 1988-1996 birth cohorts, yet cumulative ASD incidence at age 7 rose from 47.6 to 117.2 per 10,000, including after MMR withdrawal, providing evidence against MMR as a main cause of risin…
DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-7610.2005.01425.x -
Hubungan vaksin Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR) dengan Kejadian Autisme
This narrative review concludes that overall epidemiological evidence does not support a causal association between MMR vaccination and autism, though the issue remains controversial and WHO warns a small-number possibility cannot be excluded.
DOI: 10.14238/sp6.1.2004.2-9 -
Aluminum Adjuvants and Childhood Disease Prevalence
Using 2020-2021 NSCH and CDC NIS data for 2011-2017 US birth cohorts, the study reports that state-level prevalence of autism, allergies, asthma, and ADD/ADHD is significantly associated with the summed likelihood of aluminum-adjuvant vaccine doses received at 6-12 months, thoug…
DOI: 10.33140/iimj.02.03.03 -
No evidence for links between autism, MMR and measles virus
This UK time-trend study found no evidence that wild measles infection, monovalent measles or MMR vaccination, or the Urabe-to-Jeryl-Lynn strain switch increased autism risk, though an unexpected reduction in AD births around MMR introduction was noted.
DOI: 10.1017/s0033291703001259