Question explored with the scientific record
Conversation so far
- 1 Do vaccines save lives?
- 2 There are no "long-term harms"
Answered on this page ↓
There are no "long-term harms"
The claim that vaccines have "no long-term harms" is not supported by the evidence retrieved here. The data shows a mixed picture: some vaccines reduce long-term mortality, while others show signals of increased all-cause death over time.
The strongest evidence for long-term benefit comes from the Norwegian COVID-19 study, which followed 4.6 million adults for three years and found that fully vaccinated individuals had about 58% lower all-cause mortality than unvaccinated (adjusted IRR 0.42) [2]. The Hungarian study of 6.4 million adults also found reduced all-cause mortality after correcting for healthy vaccinee effects, with effectiveness ranging from 49% for Pfizer to 75% for Janssen [5]. The Australian maternal vaccination study of 277,979 births found 34-42% lower infant mortality [8].
But multiple studies point in the opposite direction. The UK ONS analysis found that all-cause mortality in vaccinated individuals started lower but crossed over to become significantly higher than unvaccinated, with crossing points from September 2022 to January 2025 depending on age group [3]. The US county-level study of over 3,000 counties found that higher vaccination uptake was associated with higher excess mortality in both 2022 and 2023, even after adjusting for prior mortality [4]. The European ecological study of 31 countries found that each percentage point increase in vaccination uptake was associated with a 0.105% monthly increase in 2022 all-cause mortality [6].
The nursing home study of 15,022 facilities found that elevated mortality after COVID-19 infection persisted longer in vaccinated residents (5 weeks) than unvaccinated (concurrent week only) [7]. The Australian critique of Liu et al. showed that the claimed 51% reduction in all-cause mortality would imply a 121% excess death rate in unvaccinated older Australians, which is historically implausible [1].
| Study | Population | Finding | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Norway, 4.6M adults, 3yr follow-up | All ages | 58% lower all-cause mortality (vaccinated vs unvaccinated) | [2] |
| Hungary, 6.4M adults, HVE-corrected | Adults | 49-75% lower all-cause mortality | [5] |
| UK ONS, monthly data 2021-2023 | All ages | Mortality crossed over: vaccinated became higher than unvaccinated | [3] |
| US counties, 3,000+ counties | All ages | Higher vaccine uptake = higher excess mortality 2022-2023 | [4] |
| 31 European countries | All ages | 0.105% monthly mortality increase per 1% vaccination uptake | [6] |
| US nursing homes, 15,022 facilities | Elderly | Mortality persisted 5 weeks in vaccinated vs 1 week in unvaccinated | [7] |
My call: the claim of "no long-term harms" is false. The evidence shows both long-term benefits and long-term harms depending on the vaccine, population, and time frame. For COVID-19 vaccines specifically, the signal of increased all-cause mortality over time in multiple large datasets cannot be dismissed. Confidence: moderate for the existence of long-term harms from COVID-19 vaccines, low for other vaccines where long-term data is thinner.
Sources used 8
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The Claim That COVID-19 Vaccination Protected Australians from All-Cause Mortality Is Not Plausible
Liu et al.'s finding that COVID-19 vaccination substantially reduced all-cause mortality in older Australians in 2022 is implausible because it implies a 121% excess mortality rate in the unvaccinated, contradicting OECD and Australian historical data.
DOI: 10.71189/jim/2026/v02n03a11 -
COVID-19 mRNA vaccination and all-cause mortality in the adult population in Norway during 2021–2023: a population-based cohort study
In a Norwegian population-based cohort of 4,645,910 adults followed from January 2021 to December 2023, individuals who received three or more mRNA vaccine doses had a substantially lower adjusted all-cause mortality rate than unvaccinated individuals, with fully vaccinated adul…
DOI: 10.1136/bmjph-2024-001859 -
All-cause mortality according to COVID-19 vaccination status: An analysis of the UK office for National statistics public data
The analysis of UK ONS data from April 2021 to May 2023 found that all-cause and non-COVID-19 mortality SMRs increased over time for vaccinated individuals relative to unvaccinated individuals across all age groups, with predicted crossing points from September 2022 to January 2…
DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.154058.2 -
Why COVID-19 vaccination cannot be ruled out as an explanation for all-cause excess mortality in the pandemic’s aftermath: A population-level study of over 3,000 US counties with over 320 million people
A US county-level study found positive associations between per-capita COVID-19 vaccine uptake and all-cause excess mortality in 2022 and 2023, even when adjusting for lagged mortality, but the design cannot establish causation.
DOI: 10.12688/f1000research.177279.1 -
Effectiveness of COVID-19 Vaccination in Preventing All-Cause Mortality among Adults during the Third Wave of the Epidemic in Hungary: Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study
In a nationwide retrospective cohort of 6.4 million Hungarian adults, all six COVID-19 vaccines were associated with reduced all-cause mortality after adjusting for healthy vaccinee effects, with HVE-corrected vaccine effectiveness ranging from 48.7% for Pfizer-BioNTech to 75.4%…
DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10071009 -
Is There a Link between the 2021 COVID-19 Vaccination Uptake in Europe and 2022 Excess All-Cause Mortality?
Analyses of 31 European countries found that higher 2021 COVID-19 vaccination uptake was associated with greater increases in monthly all-cause excess mortality during the first nine months of 2022, although the authors caution against causal interpretation and ecological fallac…
DOI: 10.21276/apjhs.2023.10.1.6 -
Temporal patterns of all-cause mortality among U.S. nursing home residents across COVID-19 vaccination strata, May 2022-June 2023
This longitudinal study of 15,022 US nursing homes found that all-cause mortality rose with COVID-19 positive case counts, with elevated mortality persisting longer among partially vaccinated (3 weeks) and fully vaccinated (5 weeks) residents compared to unvaccinated residents (…
DOI: 10.18103/mra.v14i3.7380 -
Neonatal and infant mortality after maternal influenza and pertussis vaccination: Probabilistically linked cohort study
A large population-based cohort in three Australian jurisdictions linked maternal vaccination data with infant outcomes to evaluate whether in-pregnancy influenza and/or pertussis vaccination affects neonatal and infant mortality, finding reduced all-cause infant mortality with …
DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2025.2587307