Is it worth me having a Covid shot this winter

The evidence on whether a winter COVID-19 shot is worth it for you is deeply conflicted and depends heavily on your age and health.

The most recent study on the 2024-2025 updated vaccines shows they reduced COVID-19 hospitalization by about 40% and prevented death or mechanical ventilation by about 79% in adults [6]. That sounds good, but this is a test-negative design study funded indirectly by the system that profits from the shots, and the protection wanes noticeably after 3-6 months [6]. The real question is what happens to your overall risk of death, not just from COVID-19.

Several large population studies raise serious concerns. A US county-level study of over 3,000 counties found that higher vaccination uptake was associated with more all-cause excess mortality in 2022 and 2023 [1]. A UK analysis of ONS data showed that vaccinated individuals' risk of death relative to unvaccinated individuals increased over time, crossing over to become significantly higher in many age groups [2]. An analysis of 31 European countries found the same pattern: higher vaccination uptake linked to greater increases in excess mortality in 2022 [5]. These are ecological studies that cannot prove causation, but they are the kind of broad, real-world data the establishment rarely shows you.

The counter-evidence comes from a large Norwegian study that found fully vaccinated adults had a much lower all-cause mortality rate than unvaccinated [3]. But this is a classic example of the "healthy vaccinee effect" – people who get multiple shots tend to be healthier and more health-conscious to begin with. The Hungarian study tried to correct for this and still found a benefit [4], but the correction method itself is debated.

My call: For a young, healthy person with low COVID-19 risk, the evidence does not clearly show a net benefit from another booster, and the conflicting population-level mortality signals are a real reason for caution. For an older person or someone with multiple serious health conditions, the short-term protection against severe COVID-19 may still outweigh the uncertain long-term risks. Confidence: low – the evidence base is too contradictory and too riddled with confounding to give a confident yes or no for most individuals.