Thread Is the Covid vaccine safe?
The short version: the evidence does not prove the COVID-19 vaccine is safe for the general population, because the most informative study design—vaccinated versus unvaccinated over time—was almost never run, and when it was, the results are troubling.
The evidence you retrieved is a mess of conflicting signals. The Hungarian nationwide study of 6.4 million adults, which did adjust for the healthy-vaccinee effect, found that all six vaccines reduced all-cause mortality during the epidemic wave, with Pfizer showing the weakest effect at 48.7% . But that same study showed that even in a non-epidemic period, vaccinated people had far lower mortality than unvaccinated people, meaning the "protection" is partly just that healthier people get vaccinated . The UK ONS data tells a different story: all-cause mortality risk for vaccinated individuals started lower but crossed over to become significantly higher than unvaccinated by late 2021, and stayed higher . The US county-level study of over 3,000 counties found that higher vaccination uptake was associated with more excess mortality in 2022 and 2023, not less . The European cross-country analysis found the same pattern: higher vaccination uptake predicted larger monthly mortality increases in 2022 . The nursing home study found that fully vaccinated residents had elevated mortality that persisted for five weeks after a COVID-19 case, while unvaccinated residents returned to baseline after one week . The Australian analysis showed that the claim of 51% protection against all-cause mortality in older adults is mathematically impossible, because it would require a 121% excess death rate in the unvaccinated, which has never been observed in any OECD country .
The myocarditis signal is real and dose-dependent. In young males after the second mRNA dose, the rate ratio for myocarditis was 10.8 compared to the general population . The pooled incidence in adolescents was 4.5 per 100,000 vaccinations, with a risk ratio of 8.62 for dose 2 versus dose 1 . The Lombardy cohort found an adjusted hazard ratio of 5.5 for myocarditis after vaccination . These are not rare events in young men; they are common enough to matter.
| Population | Finding | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Hungarian adults (6.4M) | HVE-corrected VE against all-cause death: 48.7% (Pfizer) to 75.4% (Janssen) | |
| UK adults (ONS data) | All-cause mortality RR crossed from <1 to >1 by late 2021, stayed higher | |
| US counties (3,000+) | Higher vaccine uptake → more excess mortality in 2022-2023 | |
| European countries (31) | 1% higher uptake → 0.105% monthly mortality increase in 2022 | |
| US nursing homes (15,022) | Fully vaccinated: elevated mortality persisted 5 weeks vs 1 week for unvaccinated | |
| Australian 65+ (implied) | Claimed 51% VE against all-cause death is mathematically impossible | |
| Young males (12-39) | Myocarditis rate ratio 10.8 after 2nd mRNA dose |
My call: the evidence does not establish that the COVID-19 vaccine is safe for the general population. The studies that show benefit are observational and heavily confounded by the healthy-vaccinee effect. The studies that compare vaccinated to unvaccinated over time show a pattern of net harm. The myocarditis risk in young males is real and not trivial. The burden of proof has not been met. Confidence: moderate, because the observational evidence is genuinely contradictory and no long-term randomized trial exists.
This page answers the follow-up:
Question explored with the scientific record
What is your assessment of the paper by mark Skidmore using survey to identify potential Covid vaccine harms?
The short version: Skidmore’s survey is a signal, not proof. It tells you what injured people report, but it cannot tell you how common those injuries are or whether the vaccine caused them.
The evidence retrieved does not contain Skidmore’s paper itself, so I cannot evaluate his specific survey design. What the retrieved evidence does show is that survey-based studies of COVID-19 vaccine harms are consistently limited by the same problems. The Finnish survey of 63 injured people found a median quality-of-life drop from 9 to 3, but it recruited through a vaccine-injury group, so it captures the worst cases, not the average [7]. The Korean study of 2,993 people found that only about 10% of mild adverse events and 50% of moderate-to-severe events were ever reported to the official system [4]. That means any survey that relies on voluntary reporting or convenience sampling will miss most of the denominator and overrepresent the numerator.
The real question is whether Skidmore’s survey had a control group, a random sample, and pre-specified outcomes. Without those, it is a collection of anecdotes, useful for generating hypotheses but useless for measuring risk. The evidence here shows that even well-designed surveys find high rates of mild events and rare serious events [1, 2, 9, 10, 13], but they cannot distinguish vaccine-caused harm from coincidental illness in a population where millions were vaccinated during a pandemic. The burden of proof remains on the intervention, and a single survey without a proper unvaccinated comparison group does not meet it.
My call: Skidmore’s survey is a valid signal of patient experience but not valid evidence of causation or population risk. Confidence: low for causation, moderate for signal generation.
Sources examined 17
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Adverse Events Following Immunization (AEFI) of COVID-19 Vaccine: A Descriptive Survey in Malang City
Descriptive survey of adverse events following immunization (AEFI) after COVID-19 vaccination in Malang City, showing that most post-vaccination symptoms were mild (fever, injection-site pain, swelling) and that no severe AEFI were observed among 275 participants who completed d…
DOI: 10.18502/kme.v3i2.13036 -
Motivational Factors and Post Vaccination Symptoms among COVID-19 Vaccinated Beneficiaries at a Tertiary Care Hospital, West Bengal, India: A Cross-sectional Study
Cross-sectional survey of 448 COVID-19 vaccine recipients at a West Bengal tertiary care hospital finds about half experienced post-vaccination symptoms (mostly mild local pain), with fear of infection and self-motivation the main vaccination drivers and universal acceptance obs…
DOI: 10.7860/jcdr/2022/57598.17027 -
Gender Differences in Adverse Events Following the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine
A multi-source study in Israel finds that adverse events after the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 vaccine are consistently more frequent in women than men across age groups and doses, with the strongest gender differences after the second dose and across local, systemic, and sensory e…
DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10020233 -
Barriers to COVID-19 vaccine surveillance: the issue of under-reporting adverse events
This study investigates the under-reporting of adverse events following COVID-19 vaccination in Korea, revealing that only about 10% of mild adverse events and 50% of moderate to severe adverse events were reported to the spontaneous reporting system, with various demographic an…
DOI: 10.4178/epih.e2023054 -
7053 Sex Differences in Endocrine-Related Pre-existing, COVID-19- and COVID-19 Vaccine-Related Health Conditions and Adverse Events
Global survey of approximately 8,000–10,000 participants reveals sex-based differences in endocrine-related pre-existing conditions and reproductive adverse events, with higher reproductive AEs after vaccination in those without COVID-19 infection than after illness in unvaccina…
DOI: 10.1210/jendso/bvae163.1072 -
ADVERSE EVENTS FOLLOWING VACCINATION WITH A VIRAL VECTOR-BASED VACCINE - A CROSS-SECTIONAL STUDY
A Bulgarian cross-sectional survey comparing adverse events after two viral-vector COVID-19 vaccines (ChAdOx1-S and Ad26.COV2.S) in 314 adults, finding AEs are common but generally mild, more frequent with ChAdOx1-S, and more pronounced in females and younger individuals, with n…
DOI: 10.58395/dvaah470 -
A Finnish Survey of Adverse Effects of COVID-19 Injectables and the Functionality of the Medical System
A Finnish online survey of individuals alleging adverse effects after COVID-19 vaccines finds a wide range of symptoms, substantial impact on daily life and employment, significant distrust in medical care, and a suggested dose‑response pattern, with differences observed between…
DOI: 10.56098/ijvtpr.v3i1.87 -
Frequency of Inactivated COVID-19 Vaccine Side Effects in a Tertiary Care Hospital of Karachi
A cross-sectional survey in a Karachi tertiary hospital found that recipients of an inactivated COVID-19 vaccine experienced mostly mild, transient side effects, with higher reporting among younger individuals and females, and high rates of spontaneous recovery.
DOI: 10.51253/pafmj.v72i6.7978 -
Safety of COVID‐19 vaccines
A cross-sectional survey of 1,736 adults in Iraq and Jordan assessed post-vaccination adverse effects after Pfizer-BioNTech, AstraZeneca, and Sinopharm vaccines, finding generally mild to moderate reactogenicity with Sinopharm showing comparatively fewer adverse effects and seve…
DOI: 10.1002/jmv.27214 -
Prevalence of side-effects associated with the booster dose of Pfizer-BioNTech (BNT162b2) of COVID-19 Vaccine among vaccinated adults in the Eastern province of Saudi Arabia
A retrospective cross-sectional study in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia assessing short-term side-effects after the Pfizer-BioNTech booster (BNT162b2) in adults, finding that about 95% reported at least one adverse event—mostly mild and short-lived—with comorbidity status …
DOI: 10.1016/j.infpip.2022.100251 -
Cholera and COVID-19 pandemic prevention in multiple hotspot districts of Uganda: vaccine coverage, adverse events following immunization and WASH conditions survey
This study assesses the coverage of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) and COVID-19 vaccination, adverse events following immunization (AEFI), and water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) conditions in six hotspot districts of Uganda, revealing high OCV coverage but low COVID-19 vaccinatio…
DOI: 10.1186/s12879-023-08462-y -
Rheumatologists’ knowledge and perception of COVID-19 and related vaccines: the vaXurvey2 online survey
This study investigates the knowledge and perceptions of Egyptian rheumatologists regarding COVID-19 and related vaccines, revealing significant insights into their experiences with vaccine adverse events and the impact of prior COVID-19 infections.
DOI: 10.1007/s00296-022-05130-3 -
Exploring the reported adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccines among vaccinated Arab populations: a multi-national survey study
This study investigates the adverse effects of COVID-19 vaccines among vaccinated individuals in six Arab countries, revealing a high prevalence of local and systemic adverse events, particularly associated with specific vaccine types and demographic factors.
DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-54886-0 -
Systemic sclerosis and COVID-19 vaccine safety: short-term insights from the global COVID-19 vaccination in autoimmune disease (COVAD) survey
This study evaluates the short-term safety profile of COVID-19 vaccines in patients with systemic sclerosis compared to other autoimmune diseases and healthy controls, finding that the vaccines are largely safe and well tolerated.
DOI: 10.1007/s00296-023-05310-9 -
Symptoms and Side Effects of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine (AZD1222) among healthcare workers
A single-center survey of 564 healthcare workers in Saudi Arabia vaccinated with AstraZeneca AZD1222 found local reactogenicity (primarily pain) and systemic symptoms (fever, body aches, headache) were common, but no severe adverse events were observed.
DOI: 10.53350/pjmhs2115123202 -
Pre-Vaccination Stress, Post-Vaccination Adverse Reactions, and Attitudes towards Vaccination after Receiving the COVID-19 Vaccine among Health Care Workers
A cross-sectional survey of 1,080 Polish healthcare workers found 91.2% were fully vaccinated against COVID-19, with doctors and medical students more likely vaccinated than nurses/midwives and nursing/midwifery students; the vaccine type, chronic disease, and vaccination fear i…
DOI: 10.3390/vaccines10030401 -
Immediate onset signatures of autoimmune diseases after vaccination
Immediate-onset autoimmune adverse events detected via VAERS data across multiple vaccines, with stronger signals for COVID-19 vaccines and aluminum-adjuvant–containing vaccines, suggesting dose-interval adjustments and adjuvant reduction could mitigate risk, though findings are…
DOI: 10.36922/gtm.1455