Question explored with the scientific record
Conversation so far
- 1 What about homeopathic observational study in Cuba to prevent leptospirosis in half of island using a nosode administration + a private exchange
- 2 See this further link https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/2156587214525402 + a private exchange
- 3 You should report more clearly this subject. As a hypothesis worth further exploration https://www.medigraphic.com/pdfs/revcubhigepi/chi-2022/chi221c.pdf
- 4 Real life empirical studies should be looked at as evidence just at a level
Answered on this page ↓
Real life empirical studies should be looked at as evidence just at a level
The short version: the 2014 reevaluation confirms a large drop in leptospirosis cases during the nosode campaign, but the study design cannot rule out rainfall, reporting changes, or other confounders as the real cause.
The only direct human evidence is the 2014 reevaluation of the Cuban 2007-2008 program [2]. It reports that cases fell from 401 in 2007 to 64 in 2008, after the nosode was given to over two million people. That is a real decline on paper.
But the study relies on national case counts with no control group, no placebo arm, and no adjustment for the biggest known driver of leptospirosis outbreaks: rainfall. The raw data it provides shows that 2007 had 319mm of rain and 2008 had 376mm [2] — wetter, not drier, in the lower-case year. That rules out a simple rain-based explanation, but does not address changes in diagnostic practices, case reporting, or population immunity from natural exposure. A 2013 ethnographic analysis of Cuban public health describes a centralized system with strong top-down data collection [5], which can work either way: consistent counting is possible, but political pressure to show program success is also possible.
No independent replication has been published in the twelve years since this reevaluation. The pattern of a single uncontrolled observational study never repeated is the same pattern that defines most low-confidence evidence across medicine. My call: the Cuban data is a genuine signal that deserves a proper trial, but it cannot support a population recommendation today. Confidence: low — the outcome is too confounded and too lonely to rely on.
Sources used 8
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Leptospirosis vaccination in dogs attending UK primary care practices: vaccine uptake and factors associated with administration
A large UK-based analysis of VetCompass electronic patient records (2016) quantified leptospirosis vaccine uptake in dogs (49%), distinguished tetravalent vs. bivalent vaccines, mapped regional variation, and identified demographic, insurer, breed, and clinic-related factors ass…
DOI: 10.1186/s12917-022-03382-6 -
A Reevaluation of the Effectiveness of Homoeoprophylaxis Against Leptospirosis in Cuba in 2007 and 2008
This study reevaluates the effectiveness of homoeoprophylaxis against leptospirosis in Cuba during 2007 and 2008, correcting previous data inconsistencies and confirming that the interventions significantly reduced disease incidence despite potential confounding factors.
DOI: 10.1177/2156587214525402 -
Exact inference for the risk ratio with an imperfect diagnostic test
An exact unconditional testing framework and confidence interval construction for the true risk ratio when disease status is measured with imperfect diagnostic tests, including differential misclassification.
DOI: 10.1017/s0950268816002028 -
Detection of Markers of Cardiovascular and Renal Risk in Cuba: Isle of Youth Study (ISYS)
The Isle of Youth Study (ISYS) reveals a high prevalence of renovascular damage markers and associated risk factors in the adult population of Cuba, highlighting the need for community-based health interventions.
DOI: 10.1159/000321505 -
Science, Sentiment, and the State
Ethnographic analysis of Cuban community genetics shows how genomics translates into public health through state paternalism, sentiment, and local economies of exchange, revealing heterogeneous practices and limits to personalized medicine within a socialist health system.
DOI: 10.1111/maq.12056 -
Towards active community participation in dengue vector control: results from action research in Santiago de Cuba, Cuba
This study evaluates the effectiveness of community participation in dengue vector control in Santiago de Cuba, demonstrating significant behavioral changes and reductions in mosquito breeding sites through local task forces.
DOI: 10.1016/j.trstmh.2006.03.006 -
Fish assemblages on fringe coral reefs of the northern coast of Cuba near Havana Harbor
This study quantified small-bodied reef fish assemblages on fringe coral reefs along the northern coast of Cuba near Havana Harbor, finding that habitat biotope and distance from the harbor drive community composition more than season, with closer sites showing signs of stress (…
DOI: 10.1016/s0147-6513(03)00104-0 -
Ischemic Stroke Subtype Incidence Among Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics
A population-based study in Northern Manhattan quantified ischemic stroke incidence and subtype distributions among whites, blacks, and Hispanics, showing higher overall incidence in blacks and Hispanics driven by increased rates across all subtypes—especially intracranial ather…
DOI: 10.1161/01.cir.0000157736.19739.d0