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The evidence does not address your specific question about metastatic prostate cancer and estrogen receptor alpha upregulation over long-term tofu consumption.

The retrieved studies are all on the wrong population. One pilot study in men with prostate cancer (median PSA 13.3) found that soy isoflavone supplementation slowed the rate of PSA rise from 20% to 6% per month [5]. A randomized trial of synthetic genistein in localized prostate cancer patients before prostatectomy found PSA dropped 7.8% in the genistein arm while rising 4.4% in the placebo arm [7]. But both studied men with localized disease, not metastatic. A third study in elderly men with elevated PSA found isolated soy protein had no effect on PSA at all [6].

The cell study you are worried about tested nonylphenol, a xenoestrogen from plastics, not the isoflavones in tofu [8]. That study does not apply. No retrieved study measured estrogen receptor alpha density in prostate tissue after long-term soy consumption.

PopulationInterventionPSA effectSource
Localized prostate cancerSoy isoflavonesRate of rise slowed (20% to 6%)[5]
Localized prostate cancerSynthetic genisteinPSA -7.8% vs +4.4% placebo[7]
Elevated PSA, no cancerIsolated soy proteinNo change in PSA[6]

Your concern about estrogen receptor alpha upregulation is a plausible mechanism, but the retrieved evidence contains no study that tested it in men with metastatic disease. The direction of signal in the studies that exist is protective, not harmful, but none of them match your scenario.

My call: the evidence does not support the fear, but it also does not rule it out because the right study was never done. Confidence: low for safety in metastatic disease on ADT plus ARPI.

Keep digging

Sources used 8

  1. Indole compounds from fermented soybean products activate the aryl hydrocarbon receptor to reduce liver injury npj Science of Food (2025) Thin

    This study investigates the effects of indole compounds derived from stinky tofu on the activation of the aryl hydrocarbon receptor (AHR) and their potential to mitigate alcoholic liver disease (ALD) by reducing liver injury through enhanced expression of cytochrome P450 1A1 and…

    DOI: 10.1038/s41538-025-00404-z
  2. Borobudur revisited: Soy consumption may be associated with better recall in younger, but not in older, rural Indonesian elderly Brain Research (2011) Thin

    This study investigates the association between soy consumption and cognitive function in rural Indonesian elderly, finding that higher consumption of tempeh and tofu is linked to better immediate recall in younger participants, while older participants show no significant assoc…

    DOI: 10.1016/j.brainres.2010.10.083
  3. Effects of soy as tofu vs meat on lipoprotein concentrations European Journal of Clinical Nutrition (2000) Thin

    This study investigates the impact of substituting tofu for lean meat on serum lipoprotein concentrations in healthy males, revealing that the tofu diet significantly lowers total cholesterol and triglycerides but also results in a decrease in HDL-C levels.

    DOI: 10.1038/sj.ejcn.1600885
  4. Phytoestrogen consumption and endometrial cancer risk: a population-based case–control study in New Jersey Cancer Causes & Control (2009) Thin

    A population-based case-control study in New Jersey (EDGE Study) assessing whether dietary phytoestrogens (isoflavones, lignans, coumestrol, and quercetin) are associated with endometrial cancer risk, finding little overall association but possible inverse effects for quercetin …

    DOI: 10.1007/s10552-009-9336-9
  5. Soy Isoflavones in the Treatment of Prostate Cancer Nutrition and Cancer (2003) Thin

    This pilot study investigates the effects of soy isoflavone supplementation on serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels in prostate cancer patients, finding that while no complete or partial responses were observed, a significant number of patients experienced stabilization …

    DOI: 10.1207/s15327914nc4702_1
  6. THE EFFECT OF ISOLATED SOY PROTEIN ON PLASMA BIOMARKERS IN ELDERLY MEN WITH ELEVATED SERUM PROSTATE SPECIFIC ANTIGEN Journal of Urology (2001) Thin

    This study investigates the effects of isolated soy protein on plasma biomarkers, specifically cholesterol and prostate-specific antigen (PSA), in elderly men with elevated PSA levels, finding that soy protein consumption significantly reduces serum cholesterol but does not affe…

    DOI: 10.1097/00005392-200101000-00082
  7. Efficacy and Safety of Short-Term Genistein Intervention in Patients with Localized Prostate Cancer Prior to Radical Prostatectomy: A Randomized, Placebo-Controlled, Double-Blind Phase 2 Clinical Trial Nutrition and Cancer (2011) Thin

    This Phase 2 clinical trial demonstrated that a short-term intervention with synthetic genistein significantly reduced serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels in patients with localized prostate cancer, while also lowering total cholesterol levels without affecting hormone …

    DOI: 10.1080/01635581.2011.582221
  8. Nonylphenol acts on prostate adenocarcinoma cells via estrogen molecular pathways Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety (2019) Thin

    This study demonstrates that nonylphenol (NP), a xenoestrogen, promotes proliferation and S-phase progression in human LNCaP prostate cancer cells, partly via ERα nuclear translocation and selective upregulation of cell-cycle and inflammatory genes, with NP effects distinct from…

    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecoenv.2019.05.035

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