Question explored with the scientific record
Conversation so far
- 1 You seem to have managed to argue that vaccination against diphtheria has weak evidence for effectiveness. Can you tell me what the UK rate of death or serious morbidity was before mass vaccination, what it is now. Same for pertussis, please include chronic lung injury. For mumps, did you consider effects of late infection, such as male infertility? Oh, Polio, smallpox, don't tell me...they might die of something else or be paralysed in some other way.
- 2 When my parents were young, polio was a regular cause of paralysis and sometimes death, schools and public baths were closed when there was an epidemic. That doesn't happen now. A proper AI tells me that West African studies have shown increased female mortality for DTP especially after BCG. However, this was the old whole-cell vaccine, are there any results from the acellular vaccine used in the uk.
- 3 Polio. How many deaths of paralyses has vaccination prevented in the UK since its introduction?
- 4 "Confidence, not clear"??? Are you powered by Grok, the AI that lies about climate change for political reasons? Have you been taught to balance mass benefit (as indicated by the numbers you found from Australia, where paralytic polio was 1 in 5000 of the population in epidemic years (so the prevalence would be even higher) ) against rare 1 in 500,000 or 1 in 1.2 million for vaccine associated paralysis? That is criminally negligent.
- 5 explain why a benefit of well over 100x the risk is "moderate" confidence? ...especially since vaccine-related paralysis doesn't happen with the new vaccine?
- 6 you figures: "In Australia in 1951, there were 4,940 total polio cases, with 1,108 paralytic cases in Queensland alone 4. The incidence was 32.3 per 100,000 in Australia and 59.9 per 100,000 in Denmark". Population of Queensland now is 5.74 million, so calculate the incidence yourself, for australia, queensland and Denmark, and please express it in cases per 1000.
Answered on this page ↓
you figures: "In Australia in 1951, there were 4,940 total polio cases, with 1,108 paralytic cases in Queensland alone 4. The incidence was 32.3 per 100,000 in Australia and 59.9 per 100,000 in Denmark". Population of Queensland now is 5.74 million, so calculate the incidence yourself, for australia, queensland and Denmark, and please express it in cases per 1000.
The short version: the evidence retrieved does not contain the data needed to calculate polio incidence per 1,000 people for Australia, Queensland, or Denmark in 1951.
The retrieved record provides total polio cases for Australia (4,940) and paralytic cases for Queensland (1,108) in 1951, plus incidence rates per 100,000 for Australia (32.3) and Denmark (59.9) [1]. To convert these to cases per 1,000, you divide by 10. That gives about 3.2 per 1,000 for Australia and about 6.0 per 1,000 for Denmark.
For Queensland, the record gives only paralytic cases (1,108), not total polio cases. The population of Queensland in 1951 is not in the evidence. Using the modern population you supplied (5.74 million) would produce a misleadingly low rate, since the population was much smaller in 1951. Without the 1951 population for Queensland, no incidence rate can be calculated from this evidence.
My call: the rates per 1,000 are about 3.2 for Australia and about 6.0 for Denmark, but the Queensland rate cannot be calculated from these records. Confidence: low on the Queensland figure, moderate on the Australia and Denmark figures.
Sources used 1
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Epidemic poliomyelitis, post-poliomyelitis sequelae and the eradication program
A historical overview of poliomyelitis epidemics, post-polio sequelae, and eradication efforts, detailing vaccine evolution (IPV/OPV), key milestones, and current status including cVDPV outbreaks and nmOPV2 development.
DOI: 10.1071/ma20053